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Top Ten Trends that Leaders Need to Know: Planning for a Complex Future

In my last post, I suggested we can all become more creative and flexible leaders by anticipating and planning for an increasingly complex future.

I took my own advice and looked ahead five years, identifying major changes that will impact leaders  across sectors and industries. My top ten (in no particular order):

  1. 1.  The mainstreaming of green globally. We’re all getting smarter about what we are doing to ourselves and the planet.
  1. 2. Unprecedented consumer empowerment. Everyone is a potential global critic who can generate a groundswell with a few strategic clicks and posts.
  1. 3. Increases in mobile technology development and use. Apps and more apps. E-book readers. Smart phones. I-pads. Notebooks. We’ve only just begun.
  1. 4. A rise in social media outlets and use. Young people are constant users. Professionals are Linked In. Baby boomers (and everyone from my old hometown, it seems) adores Facebook. Wait until the boomers retire. There’ll be no stopping their capacities to befriend – and they’ll join their children and grandchildren in wanting more.
  1. 5. The decentralization of power. The Middle East and Northern Africa offer important national illustrations – and they are not the first nor the last. Ordinary citizens armed with a desire for freedom and justice, cell phones, and access to the internet generated twitter revolutions that dethroned entrenched power (Egypt, Tunisia), put nervous leaders on alert (Jordan, Saudi Arabia), and made scared despots sink to the lowest levels (Libya). Organizational hierarchies, look out.
  1. 6. A rise in entrepreneurship. Kauffman Foundation research found new business startups at record levels in 2009 and remaining there today with an average of 565,000 new businesses formed every month in the U.S. The trend involves men and women, older and young, urban and rural, domestic and global, large and small enterprises. New competition is right around the corner.
  1. 7. The empowerment of women. Women are the majority in U.S. colleges, universities, graduate, and professional programs – and that trend grows worldwide. They are securing a voice and a vote in places where that has not always been the case. They are creative entrepreneurs with a responsible heart, as micro-financing stats demonstrate. They live – and shop – their values.
  1. 8. A new career ethic. Gen X and Y want advancement, learning, and challenge – and will jump ship to get it. Second career folks seek opportunities for contribution and significance. Women look for balance. We’d all better be looking at new ways to retain and train a productive workforce.
  1. 9. Shared knowledge and collaborative markets. Open sourcing is no longer only for hipsters and geeks, and crowdsourcing is a viable business model taught at Harvard and MIT. Younger generations like to connect and share all with the world: they’ll want to do business that way, too.
  1. 10. The growth in online retail. The stats are rising. Options are multiplying. Even the fearful are dipping a toe in the water. I just bought a travel blazer for my China trip while writing this post! 
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General

Leading in a World of Social Media Technologies

The happenings in the Middle East say much about the power of social media technologies. They are revolutionizing the practice of leadership.

Followers need a simple cell phone to organize a groundswell in support or opposition to any leader, product, or cause. Huge crowds can be assembled with a simple text message and that powerful contemporary closer: “Pass this message on.”

Strangers with shared interests or common beliefs forge virtual communities and become cyber allies through vehicles like Facebook and Twitter. Building solidarity, commitment, and shared purpose no longer require face-to-face meetings – or even residency in the same nation or on the same continent.

A twitter revolution or a smart mob a la Howard Rheingold is no novelty. Social media technologies created the conditions to topple a controlling, military-backed, thirty year regime in a seemingly stable country like Egypt; and they continue to send aftershocks through a host of other nations. They will continue to do so.

What does all this mean for contemporary leadership?  What is important to remember? 

1. Leadership is vital. At its core, leading is a social process rooted in relationship, collaboration, and mutual interest. Advances in technology and the ease of electronic communications and social networking provide additional tools for building the networks of relationship and shared purpose needed for success.

At the same time, they also expand the need for leadership. We have mind-boggling capabilities at our finger-tips to forge global alliances, further causes, and foster organizational agendas – to create, in the language of super-blogger Seth Godin, tribes of ten or ten million who care passionately about the same things that we do. All these new groups need direction, cohesion, and contribution. They need leadership from people like you or me.

2. Leaders know and respect their followers. Perhaps there were times in history when leaders could ignore the needs and collective power of their followers. Those have passed. Then President Mubarak, sitting in his palace telling world leaders that the disturbances in Egypt will pass, is a symbol of a leader in denial and out of touch. Leaders know their followers well. Social technologies can help them in this.

3. Leaders listen to, learn from, use, and manage the social groundswell. Contemporary leaders need to take their heads out of the sand about social media technologies. They are powerful and here to stay. When United States senators twitter their constituencies, and the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies talk to their constituents through Facebook, something about leading has definitely changed.

Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff provide a wealth of strategies for working the groundswell,using it to inform and energize your leadership and organization, and turning the power of social media to your advantage. I’ve learned a lot from their book, appropriately titled Groundswell

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Mubarak Steps Down: A Reminder of the Interactive Nature of Leadership

The resignation of former President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt brings home powerful understandings about the interactive nature of leadership.

All who aspire to lead from either the head or the foot of the table can learn something important about power, influence, and authority.

Leadership is all about relationships, and it is followers – not leaders – who ultimately control the balance of power. Part of the unstated contract between leaders and followers is the leader’s willingness to accept and respect that.

Leaders focused on their dominance, ego, image, or past success can forget the fragile nature of the bargain – and we have seen in 24/7 media coverage from Egypt over the past days what the result can be.

Followers, after all, give leaders their power and authority in exchange for the leader’s willingness to provide important services like protection, direction, and the allocation of important resources. The call for leadership – more leadership, better leadership – is always loudest in times of need. 

We want leaders with the presumed knowledge, wisdom, experience, and skill to deliver. And we are willing to accord them power – our willingness to follow and to be influenced by them – in exchange for their responding to our needs.

It’s only a matter of time for leaders who can’t deliver or who lose touch with their followers’ needs. In the age of twitter revolutions, the fragile balance of power can shift in a matter of days.

It may be easier to see this tacit leader-follower power bargain when played out in public sector leadership as in Egypt. But organizational leaders, be forewarned. The same dynamic applies to you.  Anyone who has tried to lead a department or unit where subordinates have lost confidence in your ability to deliver, an organization without the support of your board, a group who doesn’t believe you understand their needs, an enterprise from the lame duck status of being yesterday’s leadership news knows exactly what I mean.